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Looking back on 2025 has taught us one important lesson: That a consistently increasing COE supply still doesn't guarantee lower premiums or car prices.
The past quarter saw Cat A shooting past $100,000 in May following The Car Expo, despite the current period benefitting from an increased COE supply.
Amidst increases in both COE supply and car-buying demand recently, premiums have continued to float around the $100,000 line for all categories.
COE premiums in 2024 were arguably nowhere near their 2023 peaks - but could additional reprieve come still in 2025, especially when February swings around?
Despite the increased supply, COE premiums have still been on a steady rise in recent months - but could further relief be on its way now?
Despite a COE supply-boost over the past quarter, premiums have crept (slowly) back up again, with Cat A seeing the most significant increase.
As the cut-and-fill method continues to bolster COE supply, premiums finally appear to be cooling off. Meanwhile, de-registrations are still on the rise.
Although an unprecedented 'cut-and-fill' method has increased the opacity of the COE system, the recent rise in de-registrations is still worth noting.
As COE premiums tower over at record heights - and as the LTA continues to make one-off changes - it appears unlikely that the quota will rise in November.
As the one-time adjustment of additional COEs continues to impact the coming quarters, the COE quota is projected to rise for the August to October period.
It appears that the end of sky-high premiums may not yet be in sight, as slowing de-registrations suggest that the COE quota for May to July is set to fall.
COE prices have reached all new heights in the recent times, and it could be high time for the system to be revised. Will these suggestions work?
While premiums have cooled off this week, the continued upwards trajectory for Cats A, B and E recently has still been undeniable - and unprecedented.
First implemented in the 90s, the COE system is now hopelessly outdated, and it needs fixing to better reflect our automotive reality in 2022 and beyond.
With higher vehicle deregistrations for July and the return of quota of the suspended COE bidding, COE supply is set to increase for Nov-2020 to Jan-2021.